Outlook 2012
Although developed countries are likely to experience low or in
some cases even negative economic growth rates in 2012, emerging
countries are set to continue growing, albeit more slowly than in
2011.
The eurozone debt crisis, the high level of public debt in the
US and other countries and continued pressure on western banks,
have diminished confidence in growth prospects for the US and
Europe in 2012. This will affect emerging markets that depend
partly on capital flows from and exports to these markets. They are
likely to see reduced trade flows, volatile commodity prices,
exchange rate fluctuations and decreased foreign direct
investments.
More cyclical sectors such as commodities, mining, ports and
real estate, as well as the financial sector may be hit. The extent
of all these factors is difficult to predict, but there is likely
to be impact on FMO's portfolio. Of course we monitor these
developments closely.
Commercially, FMO enters the year in a position of strength,
with a well-filled pipeline. For funding and liquidity, we expect
as a top quality sovereign agency borrower to enjoy continued
market access. The quality of our equity and loan portfolio may
come under pressure due to market circumstances. If the eurozone
crisis were to deteriorate into a disorderly default of some member
countries and/or the euro were to be abandoned, a deep recession in
Europe would ensue. This would also impact developing countries
and, in turn, the quality of FMO's portfolio and our access to
long-term funding.
Regarding our strategy, next year marks the last of our
2009-2012 strategic period. During 2012, we will draw up our
strategy for the period 2013-2016.
Prime focus areas for FMO in 2012 are:
- Innovation and leadership
- Sustainability
- Partnerships
- Catalyzing funds of (commercial) third parties